"Following a report on a next-generation PSP, Piper Jaffray estimates that the Playstation 3 will outsell the Xbox 360 and Revolution by 2008.
While the Xbox 360 is expected to have a 5 million unit lead on the PS3 in 2006, it is estimated to drop to 500,000 in 2007, and be eclipsed by 2.5 million units in 2008.
The market research firm estimates Nintendo's Revolution to sell three million units by 2008.
It adds that the PS3 and Revolution will debut in late 2006. Sony previously said that the Playstation 3 will drop in spring 2006, but did not specify which territory would see the PS2 successor first.
Sony has traditionally launched Playstation consoles in Japan during the spring, followed by the U.S. in the fall.
Nintendo has said that the Revolution will drop sometime in 2006.
Microsoft will command an early lead with Xbox 360 this holiday season with a global launch in North America, Europe, and Japan. The company hopes that the retail momentum will sustain to help the company lead unit sales in the next-generation console war.
Overall, Piper Jaffray expects video game software to grow from $7B in 2005 to $10B in 2008."
sadly that entire article is bunk. xbox360 will outsell the ps2 by a fair margin. why? because it will support more than one game on it's massive multiplayer network. that's whats made xbox so successful. ps2's major downfall was the lack of a hard drive and the lack of games playable. whatever you want to think (fanboy or not) this is what made xbox, and they're going to capitalize on this fact.
I think it's pretty insane to make ANY predictions right now. We don't know how much the PS3 will cost. We don't know much of anything about the Revolution 'cept the controller and that it's not as strong as the other two. The Xbox will hit first (which helps), but it's coming out at a HUGE price point and the default system is borderline crippled.
There's so many crazy x-factors this time around that it's anyone's game.
I think the only solid fact is that MS at least has a proven online backbone, which the either two lack right now, and that they'll be there first.
At the same time...it's tough to ever bet against Sony when they've been so dominant in the past.