"Analyst says Microsoft will be hard-pressed to 'overdeliver' Xbox 360 consoles through December.

Microsoft Corp. has worked to keep retail supply expectations low for its new Xbox 360 video game console and is not likely to deliver more units than expected before Christmas, an analyst said Tuesday.

American Technology Research analyst Paul-Jon McNealy said in a research note that Microsoft Corp. faces a challenge in shipping 1.5 million to 1.8 million Xbox 360s worldwide by the end of December.

"We believe that [Microsoft] has tried to keep expectations low for retailers this holiday, with hopes of overdelivering. We believe that overdelivering is unlikely at this point," McNealy said.

The software company aims to sell 2.75 million to 3 million Xbox 360s in the first 90 days after its launch in late November. Microsoft spokeswoman Molly O'Donnell said the company is firmly on track to hit its 90-day target but declined to give a forecast for sales through the December holidays.

McNealy said he believed Microsoft had 300,000 to 400,000 units for the launch in North America, around 300,000 for Europe and 100,000 for Japan. He expects Microsoft to ship another 300,000 units in North America in the next week, which would put the total at about 1 million units. Additional shipments would be required at month's end to reach McNealy's 1.5 million to 1.8 million target." [more]