"Sony's plans for the launch of PlayStation 3 are likely to be one of the biggest factors defining publisher and developer planning for 2006 - but in the absence of hard facts, it's essential to be wary of uninformed speculation, says Rob Fahey.
We'd like to express our sympathy to anyone reading this who is, as some of you probably are, in the unfortunate situation of having to make business decisions based around the launch of PlayStation 3 later this year. In the wake of Microsoft's Xbox 360 launch, with all its attendant supply problems (which are still afflicting retail even now), deciding how to treat a next-generation console launch from a publisher or developer perspective right now is a game not dissimilar to playing Snakes and Ladders. While blindfolded. In a room full of hyperactive monkeys.
The situation is hindered significantly by the fact that every pundit has a wildly different view on how Sony's PS3 launch is going to pan out. Typically, US analysts - who often favour the Xbox 360 to take a large chunk of the market in the next generation - seem to be downbeat on the prospects for PS3's early days, while Japanese analysts are generally more convinced by Sony's plans. Those in the Blu-Ray camp are convinced that PS3 will be a conquering hero, HD-DVD's supporters talk darkly about the console costing roughly the national GDP of Sweden to purchase and being shipped in numbers that you can count without having to use all your fingers and toes." [more
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