"Analysts from Japanese firm Fuji Economics are predicting that Sony’s next-generation Blu-ray format will outsell Toshiba’s rival HD DVD format by the year 2010. Part of the reason for Blu-ray’s expected dominance is the fact that Sony’s next generation Playstation 3 console, due for release in 2006, will ship with a Blu-ray drive as standard.

Sony’s decision to support the Blu-ray format in their Playstation 3 console is expected to drive sales of Blu-ray discs, as current Blu-ray disc players are considerably more expensive than the PS3’s estimated cost of US $300 - $400, with price tags in excess of US $2000.

By contrast, support for the HD DVD format is expected to come from the computer manufacturing industry, with Fuji Economics predicting that HD DVD drives will be included in some desktop and notebook computers from 2006 onwards.

Adoption of the next-generation DVD formats among consumers, however, is expected to be a slow process. Consumers accustomed to the current generation DVD format will most likely begin the switch to Blu-ray or HD DVD in 2008, with sales of 8 million Blu-ray disc and HD DVD players predicted by 2010.

Of the 8 million players sold, Blu-ray is expected to gain market share of 4.5 million units, which would translate to revenue of approximately ¥119 billion [USD $993.5 million]. The 3.5 million HD DVD units expected to sell, on the other hand, would result in only ¥82 billion [US $684.5 million] in revenue.

Source: Fuji Economics" [link]